The Fentanyl crisis, the shift to a multipolar world, the diplomatic blunder "we'll be paying for for the next decade," the consequences for energy, and 'deregulate, baby, deregulate.' Whew...!
Breaking the US oil and gas industry (again) to get $40 oil isn't how you get "affordable, abundant natural gas" for Big Tech long term. But he could do it overnight by banning exports. Letting us flare methane again won't fix this.
I don't know if I am adding value here. Just throwing this out there based on the $40 oil comment and your reply above. I talked to an energy exec in Houston whose clients include other execs in big oil.
He basically said that cheap oil and Turmp's plan for more production from producers is basically a non-starter - nobody there takes it seriously. There is almost nothing Trump can do other than to provide subsidies to oil cos if he goes this route, which wouldn't make sense because that would require the government to pay for low oil - basically the gov would be privatizing it. Nat gas has the same issue.
US/Permian oil has break-even around $55-65 depending on who you ask. If you get $55 prices, oil wells will start shutting in and production will drop, at $50 the Permian is out of business (some think Permian/US oil needs $75 at least to stay in business long-term).
US shale is so new that we don't quite know and the producers don't always tell the truth to shareholders otherwise their stocks would get punished.
So if you have several million barrels a day taken off market on low prices, and oil demand doesn't change, then prices skyrocket to $100+ quickly. This will bring back production and prices will drop back to an equilibrium of $80. If you crash prices this will just repeat.
Another thing oil/gas prices were cheap when the companies had access to the capital markets in 2012-2019 - so they kept raising money and losing it. This stopped in 2021 as banks and shareholders stopped funding them. So now they have to make money on their operations because nobody will bail them out.
Anyways a long answer but thought I would throw it out there. Basically I don't see a scenario where Trump can manipulate oil prices, the market dynamics are way beyond anything he or anyone on the gov has control over.
Is Doomberg working for the Trump administration? Did he ghostwrite Project 2025? I fail to see how a coup by Elon and a shift to autocracy/oligarchy is good for democracy and the well-being of US citizens.
Breaking the US oil and gas industry (again) to get $40 oil isn't how you get "affordable, abundant natural gas" for Big Tech long term. But he could do it overnight by banning exports. Letting us flare methane again won't fix this.
Thanks for your insight Anne - Anything in particular from Fuel for Thought I should dig into along these lines? Would love to learn more
I don't know if I am adding value here. Just throwing this out there based on the $40 oil comment and your reply above. I talked to an energy exec in Houston whose clients include other execs in big oil.
He basically said that cheap oil and Turmp's plan for more production from producers is basically a non-starter - nobody there takes it seriously. There is almost nothing Trump can do other than to provide subsidies to oil cos if he goes this route, which wouldn't make sense because that would require the government to pay for low oil - basically the gov would be privatizing it. Nat gas has the same issue.
US/Permian oil has break-even around $55-65 depending on who you ask. If you get $55 prices, oil wells will start shutting in and production will drop, at $50 the Permian is out of business (some think Permian/US oil needs $75 at least to stay in business long-term).
US shale is so new that we don't quite know and the producers don't always tell the truth to shareholders otherwise their stocks would get punished.
So if you have several million barrels a day taken off market on low prices, and oil demand doesn't change, then prices skyrocket to $100+ quickly. This will bring back production and prices will drop back to an equilibrium of $80. If you crash prices this will just repeat.
Another thing oil/gas prices were cheap when the companies had access to the capital markets in 2012-2019 - so they kept raising money and losing it. This stopped in 2021 as banks and shareholders stopped funding them. So now they have to make money on their operations because nobody will bail them out.
Anyways a long answer but thought I would throw it out there. Basically I don't see a scenario where Trump can manipulate oil prices, the market dynamics are way beyond anything he or anyone on the gov has control over.
I've been quiet these past weeks mulling over how to think about what's coming. Will be posting more now.
Is Doomberg working for the Trump administration? Did he ghostwrite Project 2025? I fail to see how a coup by Elon and a shift to autocracy/oligarchy is good for democracy and the well-being of US citizens.