Yesterday on Talking Markets we were joined by Captain Quote Machine himself,
of TG Macro. As ever, he gave us his completely unfiltered take on everything - from gold to Elon, Bitcoin to the S&P, and from commodities to the deficit.The “Stores of Value Trade”
With Elon tweeting that the “big beautiful bill” is a '“disgusting abomination,” Tony said:
“It’s like Elon is getting paid to be a gold salesman or something. We just had him running Doge, then we see clips of him on the Internet tripping balls, then we see Trump lets him go from Doge, now he’s throwing rocks at the big, beautiful bill.”
“He’s p*ssed off that Trump is supposed to be doing things differently, and he just passed a bill that’s doing everything the same,” Tony said. “As a guy that voted for Trump and voted for change, I’m p*ssed at that too.”
Tony thinks that’s good for gold, gold stocks, and crypto. “We thought Trump was going to try to put a cap on the insanity [but] he’s going full pedal to the metal. He just tweeted that he wants the debt ceiling abolished. I’m looking at gold like, is it 4k yet?’” he said. “We’ve navigated into those 3 trades, which I’m calling the stores of value trade.”
The political action isn’t the only thing that has Tony interested in Bitcoin. He’s been watching inflows and says there are substantial inflows every day, no matter what the Bitcoin price does. “That tells me there are corporates investing in this that are not afraid of a 2-3% move in their face. Their agenda is ‘we need to put this much money into this security and we’re not even halfway there yet.”
It doesn’t mean he’s turned into a Bitcoin maxi though. “I’m a trader of Bitcoin, and while I won’t sit there and sell into strength, I will leave a trailing stop loss that will be so close to the market that I will be out near thee highs. I don’t ride Bitcoin to infinity, that was never the plan.”
Other Metals
“Silver is right back to the highs, we’re seeing money spill into the platinum markets, there is a mega breakout going on in industrial miners, XME right now… All of a sudden, you’ve got this shakeup where natural resources are kind of bid, or at least the metal space is kind of bid.”
S&P 500 to Blast Through 6,000?
TG doesn’t see a dip happening soon: partly because “technology is coming back to life,” partly because the S&P pretty much yawned at Putin telling Trump Russia would respond to Ukraine’s drone attack, and partly because markets are now becoming numb to tariff jawboning:
“We haven’t gone a day without some kind of tariff adjustment on steel or versus Europe or this or that, but he’s getting diminishing returns on all of his nasty tariff tweets now,” Tony said. “And the S&P, instead of going down 200 points, is now going down 50 points.”
And even if all of that that is down to complacency from the markets, TG says it’s still just much easier to manage than VIX at 60, when “everyone’s in the washing machine and nobody knows which way the bubbles are going up. We’re not in that scenario right now.”
💡“All it’s going to take is Mag-7 to have a Renaissance moment and the market will get its muscle memory back and start charging the highs and then blow right them them on the next trip up there,” Tony said.
Tony On…
Commodities
“I’m loaded to the gills with stocks here and I don’t even see a trade in the commodity markets,” he said. “For starters, there’s no supply/demand story… Oil on the way from 65 to 130 - that’s a commodity trade. This stuff here, every day I look up at the BCOM it’s 1-2% on either side of $100. And until that changes, I’m just not interested in commodities.”
Bonds and the Dollar
“I am not trading the dollar or bonds at all right now,” Tony said. “As is more usual in my process, I’m using them as a speedometer for my other trades.”
Recession or No Recession? Meh
TG doesn’t particularly care about the recession-no recession conversation: “Rates are going lower, that’s all I care about,” he said.
And Finally…
“I am doing nothing different than I ever do,” Tony said. “I've got my positions on. I've got stops below the market. I move those stops closer to the market the first chance I get, meaning as soon as my trades go into the money, I move my stop loss up.”
💡“I'm trading what I think is the beginning of the new leg of the rally after we got through all the resistance levels. So now I think we can soar and I'm trading it that way. I don’t necessarily think it's a rally to sell, I think it's the beginning of the next leg.”
Enjoy,
Maggie
Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
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