Dale Pinkert: "Miners Are Going To Be the Play for 2025"

Happy new year...! Mr. Volatility in the White House, a "great year for traders," and downside for the dollar.

Who better to kick off Talking Markets 2025 with than TradeGateHub trading coach Dale Pinkert? As ever, he brought his wisdom, wit, and wealth of charts to the Talking Markets crew yesterday (January 6), to help us all get set up for the year.

Everything was on the move yesterday, with US tech stocks rallying, bonds weak, the dollar lower, reports that Trump might be more targeted with tariffs, and the resignation of Justin Trudeau. Lots happening. “Get used to it,” says Dale.

The Dollar in 2025: A Big Play to the Downside?

The set-up for the dollar this year can be boiled down to 3 quotes from Dale:

1. The Trump administration is going to be driving the dollar

2. Administrations usually get what they want when it comes to the dollar

3. Trump wants a weaker dollar

As we know, JD agrees.

💡Right out of the 2025 gate, on January 2, the DXY hit Dale’s long-awaited target of $109. Here’s what Dale sees happening next: “I believe that we’re in the process of topping in the dollar, that were going to embark on this bear market this year, that’s going to take out par - with a minimum target of $95 sometime by the summer.”

(Side note: The last time DXY was at $95 was January 2022.)

And of course, if you get the dollar directionally correct you can get a lot of things correct. “The dollar to me is a big play for 2025 and it’s to the downside,” Dale said. “I think a weaker dollar is going to drive a lot of things [this year].”

Finally Time for Miners to Shine?

Dale was negative on miners for some time, and cautioned last time he joined us that investors should wait until all the tax selling was out of the way before dipping their toes in.

He has now started dipping his own toes in - but warns that he “knows he doesn’t have the bottom.”

While he thinks we could still see $27 silver and lower gold, there are plenty of positives:

1. The gold-silver ratio has flipped

2. Silver has actually done well with a strong dollar, which is unusual, so a weakening dollar should give it a tailwind

3. Miners haven’t been following the physical market up (yet)

4. He expects a lot of money to come out of tech. “Just the market cap of IBM would make miners go double if all that money came into the universe of miners, just one stock,” he said.

And then there’s some classic Dale contrarianism:

“Even the physical gold and silver bulls HATE the miners. They say you’re better off going to a casino and feeding machines than buying miners. I want to see the market give me some messages, but I think the miners are going to be the play for 2025. I think they’ll be the best performing group out there.”

Mag-7 Update

• NVIDIA: Last time he joined us, Dale said “If NVIDIA starts taking out $138, the trap door opens.” Well, he got the breakdown to $138, but NVIDIA then negated the breakdown so he got out of the way. “The only other thing I could have done is reverse and gotten long, but my bias kept me from doing it,” he says. “Now we’re in Wave 5. NVIDIA could trade $170.”

• GOOGLE: Last time, Dale told us that he shorted Google, but that didn’t work out because Google came out in December with Willow, their quantum chip. “That was a loser,” he said. “I got out of the way.” Now, he says, Google “looks like it could have a new high.”

• APPLE: If Apple were able to generate another new high (which Dale is not convinced of), “there’s no way we would confirm that high,” he said. “I’m thinking you might be lucky just to get a retracement.”

• OTHERS: Microsoft “hasn’t made a new high since last July,” there’s “a fly in the ointment at Netflix,” “Amazon looks okay,” and “Meta looks good all of a sudden.” This is a hazy picture. “There’s even bifurcation in the Mag 7,” Dale says. “So even among the Mag-7, you have to be a stock picker. That’s a pretty difficult environment for most people.”
  

Dale On…

• The S&P: Dale sees a big drop to about $4,900 in the S&P, and a rebound later in the year to $7,000. “I'm even taking a shot at some S&P triple bearish SPXS,” he said. “And that’s not enough leverage for me, so I’m buying calls on the triple bearish ETF - $6 calls going out to April.”

• Cash: “If people want to stay in cash, they may want to diversify into different kinds of cash,” Dale said. “They may want to diversify away from the dollar.”

• TLT: “The fact that we weren’t able to maintain the breakout over $94… If this turns out to be a three-drive formation, I know people are going to want to put me in the loony bin, but that would be $71.76 so that’s almost a sovereign bond crisis. And it’s happening everywhere but China.”

• Natural Gas: After nailing last year’s natural gas rally, Dale still likes it here - partly because “they had a warm winter in Europe last year and they may not be as lucky this year.”

• Tariffs: “We know we don’t know. That’s all we know.”

• The Real Economy: Dale says XLI represents the real economy, and he thinks “we’re putting in a head and shoulders top.”

2025’s For Traders

“It’s going to be a great year for traders,” Dale said, “because we put in Mr. Volatility to run our country, and that is gonna be ‘make hay’ time for traders. The days of just being able to own a SPDR and go play golf for 3 years, that’s over.”

Here’s what Dale says all investors should be thinking about:

“You better learn how to manage your own money and learn how to manage risk, learn how to diversify and realize, as Dylan said, the times they are a-changing. You can't move from one system, which we've had, to another system without tearing down the old to become a new system. And during that transition, it's really rocky.

And I'll give the example of the British pound, which was a reserve currency before the US dollar became the reserve currency. And that was a pretty smooth transition between an Anglo society and another one. And there still were two world wars and a depression during that transition.”

A good time to remember Dale’s 3 Ps:

1. Probe the Market

2. Partials: Take something off the table and bank some money.

3. Protect: Protect your remainder by trailing a stop at the minimum to break even where you got in.

To watch the full episode, right this way.

Enjoy,

Maggie

Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.